In my over 40 years of reporting on the Middle East, one key lesson has been to never get too excited about a deal until it is completely finalized, and even then, to proceed with caution. Nevertheless, there is a glimmer of hope, as just 24 hours ago, Hamas accepted a U.S. proposal to initiate discussions on the release of Israeli hostages, including soldiers and civilians, 16 days after the initial phase of an accord designed to terminate the Gaza conflict, according to a senior Hamas source speaking to Reuters on Saturday.
The militant Islamist group has relinquished its demand for Israel to commit to a permanent ceasefire prior to signing the agreement, allowing for negotiations to pursue this goal during the initial six-week phase, a source disclosed to Reuters under anonymity due to the private nature of the talks. Consequently, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Joe Biden have dispatched senior delegations to engage with Qatar, Egypt, and Hamas, fostering hopes that the agreement may be successfully concluded.
The meetings aim to finalize the deal by addressing a Hamas request for written guarantees from the United States, Israel, Qatar, and Egypt for a temporary ceasefire, aid deliveries as per Phase 1 of the Biden-Israel plan, and an Israeli troop withdrawal contingent on the continuation of indirect talks for implementing the plan’s second phase. This aligns with Israel’s latest hostage deal proposal submitted on May 27. On May 31, US President Biden delivered a significant speech disclosing key elements of the proposal, noting that the Israeli offer closely mirrored the prior one from Hamas.
The objective of the agreement is to cease the ongoing conflict in Gaza, which has lasted nearly nine months and resulted in over 38,000 fatalities according to local health officials. Additionally, the deal would secure the release of hostages taken during the terrorist attacks by Hamas on October 7, where Israeli officials report 1,200 fatalities and approximately 250 abductions.
A significant byproduct of a cease-fire agreement could be the reduction of tensions along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, as Israeli forces and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah continue to exchange fire. This ongoing conflict has heightened concerns about the possibility of a wider escalation in the region.
Last week, President Biden engaged in a 30-minute discussion with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, focusing on the details of the deal, according to a senior administration official. During the briefing, they examined the draft agreement and tackled unresolved issues, particularly those related to the “implementation of the agreement.”
Numerous challenges may still threaten the agreement, with some far-right members of Netanyahu’s governing coalition hinting they could exit the government if the conflict concludes without Hamas’ defeat. This could potentially end Netanyahu’s tenure as Prime Minister. Israel’s Channel 7 News reported that during a cabinet meeting on Thursday, Itamar Ben Gvir, a far-right coalition partner, claimed that security and defense officials had resumed discussions about Gaza without consulting him.
At this juncture, it seems the Israeli public desires Netanyahu to accept the deal and secure the hostages’ return. Should he align with public sentiment over Ben Gvir, the Prime Minister might avoid job loss and potentially elevate his status as a statesman.
Over the past 40 years, one clear lesson is that underestimating Netanyahu often leaves critics on the losing side once the dust settles. At this juncture, the Israeli public expects Netanyahu to leverage his diplomatic prowess to steer Israel towards a new era in the Middle East, aligning with what President Biden has termed the “Pathway to Peace.”
